Chapter 8 · Making Decisions · Planning Support

Making Decisions

الشابتر ده بيكمل Planning: يعني القرار هو اختيار بين بدائل، واتخاذ القرار هو اختيار أفضل بديل للوصول للأهداف. أهم الامتحان: programmed/nonprogrammed, consensus, rational process, risk vs uncertainty, EV, وطرق group decision making.

Start Exam Questions Cheat Sheet

Decision Types

Situation Elements

Alternative Limits

Group Techniques

مكان الشابتر في الكورس

Chapter 8 is the second planning chapter: after principles of planning, managers must choose among alternatives.

▣ Objectives

A fundamental understanding of the term decision.
فهم أساسي لمصطلح القرار.
An understanding of each element of the decision situation.
فهم لكل عنصر من عناصر موقف اتخاذ القرار.
An ability to use the decision-making process.
القدرة على استخدام عملية اتخاذ القرار.

Definitions

التعريفات الأساسية للسلايد 4.

Decision

A choice made between two or more available alternatives.

قرار = اختيار بين بديلين أو أكثر.

Decision Making

The process of choosing the best alternative for reaching objectives.

عملية اتخاذ القرار: اختيار أفضل بديل للوصول للأهداف.

متكرر في Final 2024 Q18.

Decision Types and Techniques

Programmed vs Nonprogrammed decisions.

▣ Bases for Categorizing Decisions

How much time a manager must spend making them.
What proportion of the organization must be involved in making them.
Which organizational functions they focus on.

▣ Programmed vs Nonprogrammed

Type	Meaning	Traditional Techniques	Modern Techniques
Programmed	Routine and repetitive decisions. Organization develops specific processes for handling them.	Habit · Clerical routine / standard operating procedures · Organization structure: common expectations, subgoals, information channels.	Operations research: mathematical analysis models, computer simulation · Electronic data processing.
Nonprogrammed	One-shot, ill-structured, novel policy decisions. قرارات لمرة واحدة، غير مهيكلة، وتتعلق بسياسات جديدة. Handled by general problem-solving processes.	Judgment, intuition, creativity · Rules of thumb · Selection and training of executives.	Heuristic problem-solving techniques applied to training human decision makers and constructing heuristic computer programs.

Repeated: Programmed = routine and repetitive. Nonprogrammed = one-shot decisions. Traditional programmed technique = habit.

Responsibility for Organizational Decisions

Who will make the decision?

▣ Key Factors

Decision Scope

The proportion of the total management system that the decision will affect.

نسبة إجمالي نظام الإدارة التي سيؤثر عليها القرار.

Mid 2022 asks this definition directly.

Levels of Management

Lower, middle, or upper level management.

Broader scope generally belongs higher in management.

Lower Level

Narrow decision scope (A)

Middle Level

Intermediate decision scope (B)

Upper Level

Broad decision scope (C)

Consensus

تعريف وميزة وعيب. العيب متكرر جدا.

Consensus

An agreement on a decision by all the individuals involved in making that decision.

Consensus يعني كل المشاركين موافقين على القرار.

Advantages

It focuses "several heads" on the decision.
Employees are more likely to be committed to implementing a decision if they helped make it.

Disadvantage

It often involves time-consuming discussions relating to the decision.

Elements of the Decision Situation

العناصر الخمسة التي تحيط بأي قرار.

The Decision Makers

Weak decision maker usually is receptive, exploitative, hoarding, or marketing oriented.

Goals to Be Served

The objectives the decision should help reach.

Relevant Alternatives

Available options that can solve the issue.

Ordering of Alternatives

Ranking alternatives by desirability.

Choice of Alternatives

Selecting the alternative to implement.

The Rational Decision-Making Process

النموذج الرسمي وخطواته وافتراضاته.

▣ Model

Identify existing problem

List alternative problem solutions

Select most beneficial alternative

Implement chosen alternative

Gather problem-related feedback

Exam trap: Implementation is not the final step; gathering problem-related feedback comes after implementation.

▣ Assumptions

Humans are economic beings with the objective of maximizing satisfaction or return.
All alternatives and their possible consequences are known.
Decision makers have some priority system to guide them in ranking the desirability of each alternative.

▣ Limitations on Alternatives

Authority factors.
Biological or human factors.
Physical factors.
Technological factors.
Economic factors.

Discretionary area: acceptable courses of action limited by legal restrictions, moral and ethical norms, formal policies and rules, and unofficial social norms.

Number of alternatives: More alternatives usually lead to more effective decisions, but too many alternatives may demotivate decision makers.

▣ Evaluating and Implementing Alternatives

List the potential effects of each alternative.
Assign a probability factor to each potential effect.
Compare each alternative's expected effects and the respective probabilities of those effects.

After selection, develop an action plan to implement the chosen alternative, giving it all supportive chances of success. Feedback determines the implemented alternative's effect on the problem. If the problem is not solved, seek out and implement another alternative.

Decision-Making Conditions: Risk and Uncertainty

فرق مهم ومباشر في Mid 2022.

Risk

Situations in which statistical probabilities can be attributed to alternative potential outcomes.

مثال: Alpha Inc. فتحت 10 branches في الصين قبل كده، فعندها خبرة واحتمالات.

Uncertainty

Situations where the probability that a particular outcome will occur is not known in advance.

مثال: Beta Inc. ليس لديها خبرة سابقة في الصين.

Decision-Making Tools

Subjective vs Objective tools, probability theory, and decision trees.

▣ Tool Types

Subjective Tools	Objective Tools
Intuition · Experience · Rule of thumbs	Probability Theory · Decision Trees

▣ Probability Theory

A decision-making tool used in risk situations. Probability refers to the likelihood that an event or outcome will actually occur.

EV = I * P

EV: expected value for the alternative considered.
I: income that the alternative would produce.
P: probability of producing that income.

Alternative	Potential income	Probability	Expected value
A	$90,000	.2	$18,000
B	$75,000	.4	$30,000
C	$60,000	.8	$48,000

▣ Decision Trees

Decision Tree

A graphic decision-making tool typically used to evaluate decisions involving a series of steps.

Example: Stygian Chemical Company deciding whether to build a small or large plant for a new product with an expected life of 10 years.

Build Big Plant

High Average Demand

Low Average Demand

High Initial / Low Subsequent

Build Small Plant

Initially High Demand

Expand or No Change

High / Low Demand

If demand is initially low, the small plant branch remains with initially low demand.

Study investment amounts necessary for building a large plant, building a small plant, and expanding a small plant.
Weigh the probabilities of facing different product demand levels for various decision alternatives.
Consider projected income yields for each decision alternative.

Net Expected Gain = Expected Value - Investment Cost

Group Decision Making

Advantages, disadvantages, groupthink, brainstorming, nominal group technique, and Delphi.

▣ Group Decision Making: Pros and Cons

Advantages

A group can generally come up with more and better decision alternatives.
A group can draw on collective, diverse organizational experiences.
Members tend to support implementation more fervently.

Disadvantages

It takes longer because groups must discuss all members' views.
Group decisions cost more because they take the time of more people.
Groupthink: members' efforts to maintain friendly relationships among themselves.

▣ Brainstorming

Group members state ideas

No comments at this stage

Leader records ideas

Ideas evaluated after all recorded

يتم تقييم الأفكار بعد تسجيلها جميعاً.

Advantage	Disadvantage
Encouraging the expression of as many useful ideas as possible. تشجيع التعبير عن أكبر عدد ممكن من الأفكار المفيدة.	Wasting the group's time on ideas that are wildly impractical. إضاعة وقت المجموعة في أفكار غير عملية تماماً.

▣ Nominal Group Technique (NGT)

Each group member writes down individual ideas on the decision or problem.
كل عضو في المجموعة يكتب أفكاره الفردية حول القرار أو المشكلة.
Each member presents individual ideas orally; ideas are usually written on a board.
كل عضو يعرض أفكاره الفردية شفهياً؛ وعادة ما تُكتب الأفكار على سبورة.
After all members present ideas, the group discusses these ideas simultaneously; discussion tends to be unstructured and spontaneous.
بعد أن يعرض جميع الأعضاء أفكارهم، تناقش المجموعة هذه الأفكار في وقت واحد؛ ويميل النقاش إلى أن يكون غير منظم وتلقائي.
When discussion is completed, a secret ballot is taken. The idea receiving the most votes is adopted and implemented.
عند انتهاء النقاش، يتم إجراء اقتراع سري. الفكرة التي تحصل على أكبر عدد من الأصوات يتم اعتمادها وتنفيذها.

Advantage	Disadvantage
Secret ballot allows individuals to support or reject an idea without fear of recrimination. الاقتراع السري يسمح للأفراد بدعم أو رفض أي فكرة دون خوف من الانتقام.	Group members have no way of knowing why individuals voted the way they did. ليس لدى أعضاء المجموعة أي وسيلة لمعرفة سبب تصويت الأفراد بالطريقة التي قاموا بها.

Exam trap: In NGT, group members do meet face to face. "Never meet face to face" is Delphi, not NGT.

▣ Delphi Technique

A problem is identified.
يتم تحديد مشكلة.
Group members provide anonymous responses to a carefully designed questionnaire.
يقدم أعضاء المجموعة ردوداً مجهولة المصدر على استبيان مصمم بعناية.
Responses are compiled and sent to all group members.
يتم تجميع الردود وإرسالها إلى جميع أعضاء المجموعة.
Members generate new individual solutions after studying the compiled responses.
يقوم الأعضاء بابتكار حلول فردية جديدة بعد دراسة الردود المجمعة.
Steps 3 and 4 are repeated until a consensus problem solution is reached.
تتكرر الخطوتان 3 و 4 حتى يتم الوصول إلى إجماع حول حل المشكلة.

Advantage	Disadvantage
Ideas can be gathered from members who are too geographically separated or busy to meet face to face. يمكن جمع الأفكار من الأعضاء المتباعدين جغرافياً أو المشغولين جداً عن اللقاء وجهاً لوجه.	Members are unable to ask questions of one another. لا يتمكن الأعضاء من طرح الأسئلة على بعضهم البعض.

True / False - Chapter 8

Extracted from the provided exams.

TF-1 Mid 2022 Q1-2 · Final 2025 Q1-15Repeated

A programmed decision is typically a one-shot structured decision.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ Chapter 8 بيقول Programmed decisions = routine and repetitive. أما one-shot decisions دي Nonprogrammed.

فخ في الامتحان: الدكتور بيحب يبدل الكلمتين: routine = programmed، one-shot = nonprogrammed.

TF-2 Final 2019 Q2b · Mid 2022 Q1-4Repeated

In the nominal group technique, group members never meet face to face.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ NGT فيها الأعضاء بيعرضوا أفكارهم orally وبيتناقشوا، يعني ممكن يقابلوا بعض. اللي مناسب للناس البعيدة ومش face-to-face هو Delphi.

Memory Trick: Delphi = Distance. NGT = Notes + Group + Vote.

TF-3 Final 2019 Q2c · Final 2021 Q13 · Mid 2022 Q1-3Repeated

Implementation of the chosen alternative is the final step in the decision-making process.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ Rational Decision-Making Process آخره Gathering problem-related feedback. التنفيذ خطوة مهمة، بس بعدها لازم نشوف القرار حل المشكلة ولا لأ.

خد بالك: أي سؤال يقول implementation final step = غلط.

TF-4 Final 2021 Q11

A decision that is routine and repetitive, and typically handled in a specific way, is frequently called a non-programmed decision.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ Routine + repetitive + handled in a specific way = Programmed decision. Nonprogrammed معناها قرار جديد ومش متكرر.

دي بتيجي كتير: لو السؤال فيه routine/repetitive يبقى Programmed فورا.

TF-5 Final 2021 Q12

Decisions made through consensus usually take up lesser time than those made by a single individual.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ Consensus بياخد وقت أطول غالبا لأن كل الناس لازم توافق، وده بيعمل discussions كتير.

خد بالك: ميزة consensus الالتزام، عيبه الوقت.

TF-6 Final 2024 Q1

The second step in the decision-making process is identifying a problem.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ Identifying an existing problem هي أول خطوة، مش تانية. التانية هي List alternative problem solutions.

Memory Trick: Problem first, Alternatives second.

TF-7 Final 2024 Q3

Managers identify a problem by comparing the current state of affairs to some standard.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: True ليه True؟ علشان المشكلة بتظهر لما الوضع الحالي يبقى مختلف عن standard أو target. ده جزء من Identify existing problem.

مثال: المبيعات المفروض 100، الحالي 60، يبقى فيه problem.

TF-8 Final 2024 Q4

Intuitive decision making is systematic, logical, and orderly.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False ليه False؟ Intuition أداة subjective، يعني إحساس وخبرة شخصية. systematic/logical/orderly أقرب للـ rational decision-making process.

فخ: Intuition مش معناها analysis.

TF-9 Final 2021 Q14 · Final 2024 Q6Repeated

Groupthink is a group decision-making process in which negative feedback on any suggested alternative by any group member is forbidden until all members have presented alternatives that they perceive as valuable.

T True

F False

✅ الإجابة: False This wording describes the no-criticism stage of brainstorming more than groupthink. Groupthink is when desire for agreement overrides realistic appraisal.

MCQ

MCQ - Chapter 8

Every decision-making MCQ found in the provided exams.

MCQ-1 Final 2019 Q1cRepeated idea

The main disadvantage of arriving at decisions through consensus is ________.

A it results in very few practical solutions

B it reduces employees' commitment to the decision

C it involves time-consuming discussions

D often the manager must make the decision

E it focuses "several heads" on the decision

✅ الإجابة: C ✓ Why the correct answer is correct: C صح لأن عيب consensus الأساسي إنه بياخد وقت طويل في المناقشات.

✗ A: مش لازم يطلع حلول قليلة. ✗ B: العكس، الموظفين بيبقوا committed أكتر لو شاركوا. ✗ C: صح. ✗ D: مش العيب المكتوب. ✗ E: دي ميزة مش عيب؛ several heads يعني عقول أكتر.

خد بالك: Consensus advantage = commitment، disadvantage = time.

MCQ-2 Final 2021 Q30 · Final 2024 Q20Repeated

Trendy Garb is a retail store that sells women's apparel. The store has comprehensive rules, policies, and procedures for matters relating to customer complaints and product returns. Hence, when faced with either of these situations, the store manager simply needs to refer to these guidelines and proceed accordingly. This is an example of a(n) _______.

A overlapping responsibility

B nonprogrammed decision

C rule of thumb

D decision tree

E programmed decision

✅ الإجابة: E ✓ Why the correct answer is correct: E صح لأن فيه rules/policies/procedures جاهزة، فالموقف routine ومتكرر.

✗ A: Overlapping responsibility مش نوع قرار. ✗ B: Nonprogrammed بيبقى جديد ومش structured، وده عكس السؤال. ✗ C: Rule of thumb طريقة تقديرية، مش وجود policy واضحة. ✗ D: Decision tree أداة رسومية لقرارات متعددة الخطوات. ✗ E: صح.

دي بتيجي كتير: لو فيه Standard Operating Procedures يبقى Programmed.

MCQ-3 Final 2021 Q31 · Final 2024 Q32Repeated

Which of the following is a traditional technique for solving a programmed decision?

A judgment

B rules of thumb

C habit

D intuition

E training

✅ الإجابة: C ✓ Why the correct answer is correct: C صح لأن traditional techniques للـ programmed decisions تشمل Habit.

✗ A: Judgment للـ nonprogrammed. ✗ B: Rules of thumb برضه nonprogrammed traditional. ✗ C: صح. ✗ D: Intuition subjective/nonprogrammed. ✗ E: Selection and training of executives للـ nonprogrammed.

Memory Trick: Programmed traditional = H-C-O: Habit, Clerical routine, Organization structure.

MCQ-4 Mid 2022 Q15

Programmed decisions are

A non-structured

B one-shot decisions

C routine and repetitive

D made by top management

E made by computers

✅ الإجابة: C ✓ Why the correct answer is correct: C صح بالنص: Programmed = routine and repetitive.

✗ A: Non-structured أقرب لـ nonprogrammed. ✗ B: One-shot = nonprogrammed. ✗ C: صح. ✗ D: مش شرط top management. ✗ E: الكمبيوتر ممكن يساعد، بس مش التعريف.

خد بالك: التعريف بيتحفظ زي ما هو.

MCQ-5 Mid 2022 Q16

The proportion of the total management system that a decision will affect is called the

A scope of the decision

B unity of command

C span of control

D level of management

E discretionary area

✅ الإجابة: A ✓ Why the correct answer is correct: A صح لأنه تعريف Decision Scope: القرار هيأثر على قد إيه من النظام الإداري.

✗ A: صح. ✗ B: Unity of command من organizing يعني مدير واحد. ✗ C: Span of control عدد المرؤوسين. ✗ D: Level of management مين هياخد القرار، مش حجم تأثيره. ✗ E: Discretionary area حدود البدائل المقبولة.

مثال: قرار يغير سعر منتج في فرع واحد narrow scope، قرار يغير استراتيجية الشركة broad scope.

MCQ-6 Mid 2022 Q17

_______ is an agreement on a decision by all the individuals involved in making the decision.

A Law

B Consensus

C Fiat

D Declaration

E clause

✅ الإجابة: B Consensus means agreement by all involved individuals.

MCQ-7 Mid 2022 Q18

The first step in the decision-making process is to

A identify possible alternatives for solving an organizational problem

B identify organizational objectives

C identify an existing problem

D gather feedback about an existing problem

E implement the selected alternative

✅ الإجابة: C Step 1 of the rational process is identifying an existing problem.

MCQ-8 Mid 2022 Q19

_______ refers to situations where the probability that a particular outcome will occur is not known in advance.

A Uncertainty

B Risk

C Unrealistic optimism

D Heuristics

E Hazard

✅ الإجابة: A Unknown probability = uncertainty.

MCQ-9 Mid 2022 Q20

If I = $57,500 and P is .3, what is the expected value (EV)?

A $17,250

B $191,666

C $74,750

D $40,250

E $131,466

✅ الإجابة: A EV = I * P = 57,500 * .3 = 17,250.

MCQ-10 Mid 2022 Q21

Which of the following is the first step in the process of brainstorming?

A members comment on ideas

B group leader chooses members

C ideas are evaluated

D group members state ideas

E ideas are recorded

✅ الإجابة: D Brainstorming starts when group members state ideas.

MCQ-11 Mid 2022 Q22

Decision making using the Delphi technique ends

A with a secret ballot which allows members to support their favorite ideas

B when group members are allowed to finally meet face to face

C after all the responses of all the group members have been consolidated

D once a consensus problem solution is reached

E after all questionnaires have been scored and tallied

✅ الإجابة: D Delphi repeats questionnaire rounds until consensus is reached.

MCQ-12 Final 2024 Q18

Which of the following is true about decisions and decision-making?

A Managers make decisions primarily when performing the controlling function.

B In the process of deciding, the alternatives are as important as the choice made.

C Organizations only have to consider significant decisions that have a major impact on business.

D Decision making is the process of choosing the best alternative for reaching objectives.

E All managerial decisions are of equal significance to the organization.

✅ الإجابة: D This is the official definition of decision making.

MCQ-13 Final 2024 Q21

Nonprogrammed decisions are _______.

A structured

B one-shot decisions

C routine and repetitive

D less time-consuming

E made by computers

✅ الإجابة: B Nonprogrammed decisions are one-shot and ill-structured.

MCQ-14 Final 2024 Q52 · Final 2025 Q58Repeated

Which of the following statements about groupthink is true?

A Groupthink cannot take place in a newly formed group.

B A group with high levels of mistrust and conflicts is likely to be most susceptible to groupthink.

C A group with a high level of cohesiveness is likely to be susceptible to groupthink.

D Managers must help committees to establish groupthink to generate alternative problem solutions.

E A group which is highly competitive will most probably result in groupthink.

✅ الإجابة: C Groupthink is linked to excessive desire for agreement and harmony in cohesive groups.

MCQ-15 Final 2024 Q60

_______ is the mode of thinking that group members engage in when the desire for agreement so dominates the group that it overrides the need to realistically appraise alternative problem solutions.

A Social loafing

B Group polarization

C Groupthink

D Cognitive dissonance

E Collective intelligence

✅ الإجابة: C This is the definition of groupthink.

Essay Questions - Chapter 8

Questions from the provided exams with model answers.

▣ Final 2019 Q6

Question: State one advantage and one disadvantage for the following group decision techniques: Brainstorming, Nominal Group Technique, Delphi Technique.

Technique	Advantage	Disadvantage
Brainstorming	Encouraging the expression of as many useful ideas as possible. تشجيع التعبير عن أكبر عدد ممكن من الأفكار المفيدة.	Wasting the group's time on ideas that are wildly impractical. إضاعة وقت المجموعة في أفكار غير عملية تماماً.
Nominal Group Technique	Secret ballot lets individuals support or reject ideas without fear.	Members have no way of knowing why others voted the way they did.
Delphi Technique	Ideas can be gathered from members who are geographically separated or too busy to meet.	Members are unable to ask questions of one another. لا يتمكن الأعضاء من طرح الأسئلة على بعضهم البعض.

Cheat Sheet - Chapter 8

مراجعة مركزة.

Definitions

Decision

Choice between two or more alternatives.

Decision making

Choosing the best alternative for reaching objectives.

Consensus

Agreement by all individuals involved.

Scope

Proportion of total management system affected.

Types

Programmed

Routine and repetitive; habit is a traditional technique.

Nonprogrammed

One-shot, ill-structured, novel policy decisions.

قرارات لمرة واحدة، غير مهيكلة، وتتعلق بسياسات جديدة.

Risk

Statistical probabilities can be attributed.

Uncertainty

Probability is not known in advance.

Rational Process

Identify existing problem.

List alternatives.

Select most beneficial alternative.

Implement chosen alternative.

Gather problem-related feedback.

جمع الملاحظات (التغذية الراجعة) المتعلقة بالمشكلة.

Group Techniques

Brainstorming

State ideas first; evaluate only after all are recorded.

NGT

Individual ideas, oral presentation, discussion, secret ballot.

Delphi

Anonymous questionnaires repeated until consensus.

Formula

EV = I * P; Net expected gain = EV - investment cost.

Flashcards

اضغط على الكارت لعرض الإجابة.

Decision making = ?

click

Choosing the best alternative for reaching objectives.

Programmed decision?

click

Routine and repetitive.

روتينية ومتكررة.

Nonprogrammed decision?

click

One-shot, ill-structured, novel policy decision.

Final rational decision step?

click

Gather problem-related feedback.

جمع الملاحظات (التغذية الراجعة) المتعلقة بالمشكلة.

EV formula?

click

EV = I * P

Delphi ends when?

click

A consensus problem solution is reached.